Oral programme II.

II.

Decadal prediction and attribution
Convenors: J. Marotzke , G. Hegerl 
Oral programme
 / Mon, 28 Aug, 11:00–12:20  / Room Helmut-Schmidt-Auditorium
 / Tue, 29 Aug, 09:00–10:15  / 15:30–17:05  / Room Helmut-Schmidt-Auditorium
Poster programme
 / Attendance Tue, 29 Aug, 13:45–15:30  / Poster area

Monday, 28 August 2017
Room Helmut-Schmidt-Auditorium
Chairperson: Gabi Hegerl
11:00–11:20
4ICESM-220
Decadal variability, predictability & risks (invited)
E. Hawkins
11:20–11:35
4ICESM-97
How sea ice could be the cold beating heart of European weather
I. M. Ringgaard, S. Yang, J. H. Christensen, and E. Kaas
11:35–11:50
4ICESM-61
Internal Variability in European Summer Temperatures
L. Suarez-Gutierrez, W. Müller, C. Li, and J. Marotzke
11:50–12:05
4ICESM-126
The effect of global warming on the internal variability of tropical Atlantic rainfall - a large ensemble modelling study
S. Milinski, J. Bader, J. Jungclaus, and J. Marotzke
12:05–12:20
4ICESM-21
Multidecadal variability of South and East Asian Monsoons in CMIP5 Climate Models
B. Preethi, M. Mujumdar, and R. H. Kripalani

Tuesday, 29 August 2017
Room Helmut-Schmidt-Auditorium
Chairperson: Jochem Marotzke
09:00–09:15
4ICESM-133
Does ENSO change under anthropogenic forcing?
N. Maher, D. Matei, and J. Marotzke
09:15–09:30
4ICESM-38
Effects of Past Climate Change on Tropical Cyclone Rainfall near Taiwan: Case Studies using A Cloud-Resolving Model
C.-C. Wang
09:30–09:45
4ICESM-32 | presentation
A Link between Interannual Heat Transport Variability and Surface Temperature Predictability in the North Atlantic
L. Borchert, W. A. Müller, and J. Baehr
09:45–10:00
4ICESM-64
European Decadal Climate Variability and its Prediction
H. Feldmann, H.-J. Panitz, S. Brand, M. Uhlig, N. Laube, J. Mömken, F. Kelemen, and Ch. Kottmeier
10:00–10:15
4ICESM-122
Can decadal climate predictions be improved by ocean ensemble dispersion filtering?
C. Kadow, S. Illing, I. Kröner, U. Ulbrich, and U. Cubasch
Coffee break
15:30–15:50
4ICESM-206
From attributing individual extreme events to reliable future risk assessment (invited)
F. E. L. Otto
15:50–16:05
4ICESM-195
The early 20th century warming
G. Hegerl
16:05–16:20
4ICESM-42
Climate-modes initialization for decadal predictions
I. Polkova, A. Koehl, and D. Stammer
16:20–16:35
4ICESM-87
Attribution of the local Hadley cell widening in the Southern Hemisphere
Y.-H. Kim, S.-K. Min, S.-W. Son, and J. Choi
16:35–16:50
4ICESM-183 | presentation
Attributing Past and Future Climate Variations with Ensemble Simulations, Data Assimilation, and Climate Predictions
M. Ishii
16:50–17:05
4ICESM-134
Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections
J. Marotzke