HS8.4

Ensemble Representations of Rainfall Observation and Analysis Uncertainty
Convener: T. Bellerby 
Oral Programme
 / Tue, 21 Apr, 10:30–12:00  / Room 34
Poster Programme
 / Attendance Tue, 21 Apr, 17:30–19:00  / Hall A
Ensemble descriptions are a necessary tool for studying the impact of observation uncertainty on the calibration, states and outputs of hydrological models. Research in this area has recently burgeoned with stochastic rainfall generators being developed to condition families of rainfall fields on satellite or radar observations, building on earlier developments that conditioned ensemble products on networks of synoptic gauges.

This session aims to bring together research on the ensemble representation of uncertainty in rainfall observation and analysis. Papers are solicited for the following topics:

1. Probabilistic and ensemble representations of uncertainty in precipitation observations, including gauge, radar and satellite retrievals and multivariate analyses.

2. Ensemble representations of uncertainty in downscaled precipitation products.

3. Development of conditional stochastic rainfall generators.

4. Hydrological studies incorporating ensemble precipitation inputs, with an emphasis on the utility of and requirements for ensemble input fields.

The session is associated with the HEPEX testbed of the same name. However, contributions are encouraged from across the meteorological and hydrological research communities.