Significant advances have been made in observing and understanding volcanic
hazards. The risks they pose may be estimated via Quantitative Risk Analyses (QRAs)
which attempt to incorporate the likelihood of hazards and their impact footprint,
according to expectations of how hazards would evolve and to the
exposure and vulnerability of people and property at risk. In regions around
volcanoes that are erupting or have potential to erupt, QRAs can provide a
useful tool for guiding decision makers on matters relating to risk mitigation.

The usefulness of any risk model depends not only on how robust it is in
incorporating realistic distributions for potential hazardous events, but also
on how accurately the uncertainty of those distributions can be captured.
Often the timely availability of a risk analysis and how it is adapted and updated
through time are critical for the analysis to have real world impact in a developing crisis.
Combining these requirements is a major challenge in real-time volcano risk monitoring.

We invite abstracts on topics relating to the development of QRAs for volcanoes
and how output from numerical modelling, statistical analyses, expert
judgement and monitoring data can be incorporated in models which aim to deliver
risk analysis as an additional tool before and during volcanic eruptions.

Invited Talk: "Counterfactual Volcanic Hazard Analysis", Gordon Woo