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CL6.3

Ensemble Methods for Combining Alternative Models of Climate Change
Convener: Gregory Duane  | Co-Conveners: Frank M. Selten , Noel Keenlyside 
Orals
 / Wed, 30 Apr, 10:30–12:00 / Room Y6
Posters
 / Attendance Wed, 30 Apr, 17:30–19:00 / Yellow Posters
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Models of the class used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), as in the CMIP5 experiments, differ widely in regard to the overall magnitude of projected global warming, in their regional projections, and in their short-range projections. While better models of the underlying physical processes are ultimately needed, immediate improvement may come simply from better methods to combine existing models. The same can be said of weather-prediction models. Contributions are solicited on new methods to fuse climate models ranging from output averaging techniques to methods that dynamically combine model components in an interactive ensemble. The importance (or lack thereof) of nonlinearities in determining the sufficiency of output averaging is a topic of special interest.