HS7.7/NP3.8Hydroclimatic and hydrometeorologic stochastics: Extremes, scales, probabilities (co-organized)
|Convener: Alin Andrei Carsteanu | Co-Conveners: Alberto Viglione , Ladislav Gaál , Sabine Lennartz-Sassinek , Marco Borga , Auguste Gires , Andreas Langousis , Xiaolan Wang , Demetris Koutsoyiannis , Salvatore Grimaldi , Venugopal Vuruputur|
/ Fri, 17 Apr, 08:30–09:06 / PICO Spot 2
Over the last decades, a significant body of empirical and theoretical work has revealed the departure of statistical properties of hydrometeorological processes from the classical statistical prototype, as well as the scaling behaviour of their variables in general, and extremes in particular, in either state, space and/or time. This PICO session aims at employing the most modern and captivating environment of scientific exchange (i.e., a 2-minute oral presentation, nicknamed "2-minute madness", followed by an interactive poster presentation on dedicated touch-screens, see http://www.egu2015.eu/pico.html), to present the latest developments on:
- Coupling stochastic approaches with deterministic hydrometeorological predictions, in order to better represent predictive uncertainty;
- Stochastic-dynamic approaches that are more consistent with the hydrometeorological reality than both deterministic and statistical models separately;
- Variability at climatic scales and its interplay with the ergodicity of space-time probabilities;
- Linking underlying physics and scaling stochastics of hydrometeorological extremes;
- Development of parsimonious representations of probability distributions of hydrometeorological extremes over a wide range of scales and states;
- Understanding and using parsimonious parametrizations of extremes in risk analysis applications and hazard prediction.
The session is organized by the EGU/HS Subdivision on Precipitation and Climate and is cosponsored by the International Commission on Statistical Hydrology of International Association of Hydrological Sciences (ICSH-IAHS, former STAHY).
Looking forward to welcoming your innovative research in a new and dynamic session format!