Volcanic unrest is a complex phenomenon leading to the creation of new and exacerbation of existing hazards. The fact that unrest does not necessarily lead to an eruption contributes significant uncertainty to short-term hazard assessment and risk management of volcanic activity world-wide. Typically volcanic eruptions are associated with precursory activity of some sort, however, the knowledge of the causative links between sub-surface processes, resulting unrest signals and their bearing on the imminence of eruption is insufficient to deal effectively with crises of volcanic unrest. This results predominantly from the uncertainties in identifying the causative processes of unrest and as a consequence in forecasting its short-term evolution. Key for effective risk mitigation and management during unrest is, however, the early and reliable identification of changes in the subsurface dynamics of a volcano. The assessment of these changes as (i) potential precursors to an impending eruption and/or (ii) sources of hazards and associated risks is a vital but not trival component in of unrest crises management.

This session seeks to sample the state-of-the-art research on volcanic unrest and its use for probabilistic forecasting, hazard assessment and risk mitigation. We aim to exploit the full bandwidth of research into the mechanisms of volcanic unrest by inviting contributions from geophysical, geodetic and geochemical observations, experimental and computational simulations and stochastic modelling of outcomes of unrest episodes. We are particularly keen to explore how the research base and its technological and scientific uncertainties can be best employed and translated for risk management during unrest crises.

We welcome contributions from the volcanological as well as from the risk managing and decision-making communities.