Climate warming and land use changes can cause changes in both high and low flow regimes. These changes can be particularly complex in mid- and high- latitudes due to the potential impact of such changes on the snow cover. Increases in temperature, for example, can lead to a change in water storage dynamics and flow seasonality, which may be quite different than those which might be interpreted from changes in patterns of seasonal and extreme precipitation. Such changes can influence the timing and magnitudes of extreme events, as well as seasonal low and high flows. Hydrological extremes have a direct effect on society and water dependent sectors, including agriculture, forestry, fishing, hydropower, domestic water supply, and tourism. It is therefore important for society as a whole that the occurrence and patterns of hydrological extremes, both under a present and future climate are well understood. Such knowledge is a prerequisite for adaptation of water resources management to changing hydrological conditions.
The session will address both methodological and practical issues related to the analysis and modelling of extreme events within the context of changing meteorological and hydrological regimes, both under present and future conditions. In this regard the processes involved will be treated as mutually dependent. The understanding of this dependence and feedback mechanisms acting within the complex society and environment interactions is of great importance in the development of the adaptation measures and managing future water resources.
Contributions from scientists working on various aspects of modelling of hydrological processes in mid- and high – latitude located catchments are welcome. The topics include:
• Detection of trends and shifts in observed and projected future hydro-climatological data; analysis of possible sources of changes (relationships with atmospheric circulation patterns).
• Adaptation of hydrological models to varying conditions in a catchment including effects of changing snow cover (parametric/structural non-stationarity).
• Development of methods for quantifying uncertainty in hydrological future climate and land use projections resulting from the propagation of uncertainty from multiple ensembles and hydrological model structure and parametric uncertainty; nonstationary frequency analysis for extreme hydrological events (floods and droughts).
• Attribution of changes in floods and droughts to environmental changes including climate change, land use change and changes in water management.
• Adaptation issues: expected future changes in floods and droughts and how these may affect various sectors; adaptation strategies for managing the impact of climate change on hydrological extremes; feedback mechanisms in water-society interactions and their impact on adaptation strategies.
Our session keynote speaker is dr Fred F. Hattermann from Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany