HS4.3/AS4.36/NH1.12Ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting (co-organized)
|Convener: Fredrik Wetterhall | Co-Conveners: Schalk Jan van Andel , Maria-Helena Ramos , Jan Verkade , Kolbjorn Engeland , Rodrigo Paiva , Tomasz Niedzielski|
This session will be an opportunity to bring together scientists, forecasters, practitioners and stakeholders interested in exploring the use of ensemble hydro-meteorological forecast techniques in hydrological applications: e.g., flood control, reservoir operation for hydropower and water supply, irrigation scheduling, crop modelling for agricultural management. The session will also explore new forecast products and systems in terms of their implementation and practice for real-time forecasting.
Contributions will cover, but are not restricted to, the following topics:
- The design of ensemble prediction systems
- Requirements and techniques to improve the skill of hydro-meteorological ensemble forecasting systems
- Methods to bias correct and calibrate ensemble forecasts
- Methods to assess the quality or benchmark the performance of ensemble forecasts
- Approaches to deal with forecast scenarios in real-time
- Strategies for balancing human expertise and automation in ensemble forecasting systems
- Challenges of the paradigm shift from deterministic to ensemble forecasts
- Methods and products that include forecaster knowledge to improve the interpretation of ensemble forecasts
- Approaches for efficient training (including role-playing games) on the use and value of ensemble predictions.
The session welcomes new experiments and practical applications showing successful experiences, as well as problems and failures encountered in the use of uncertain forecasts and ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting systems. Case studies dealing with different users, space-time scales, forecast ranges, hydrological and climatic regimes are welcome.
The session is part of the HEPEX international initiative: www.hepex.org