Orals AM6/NWP5

AM6/NWP5

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (s2s) predictions and societal applications (co-organized)
Convener: Ángel G. Muñoz 
Co-Conveners: Laura Ferranti , Joanne Robbins , Andrew W. Robertson , Adrian Tompkins 
Session details
Orals
 / Fri, 16 Sep, 09:00–16:00 / Room Oceania AB
Posters
 / Attendance Fri, 16 Sep, 10:30–11:30 / Hall
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Friday, 16 Sep 2016
Room Oceania AB
Chairperson: Angel G Munoz
09:00–09:30
EMS2016-782
Modes, predictability and skill
Adrian Mark Tompkins
09:30–09:45
EMS2016-82
Structure and Evolution Characteristics of Atmospheric Intraseasonal Oscillation during Wet and Dry summers over Yangtze River Basin in China
Yanjun Qi
09:45–10:00
EMS2016-185
Modulation of Indonesian rainfall variability by the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Rahmat Hidayat
10:00–10:15
EMS2016-80
Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts with CNRM-CM : a case study on the July 2015 West-European heat wave
Constantin Ardilouze, Lauriane Batté, and Michel Déqué
10:15–10:30
1-minute espressi talks (poster introductions)

Coffee break & poster session
Chairperson: Adrian Tompkins
11:30–11:45
EMS2016-337
Statistical approaches for diagnosing and applying sources of forecast skill to subseasonal predictions
Nathaniel Johnson, Jiaxin Black, Daniel Harnos, Michelle L'Heureux, Stephen Baxter, and Steven Feldstein
11:45–12:00
EMS2016-516
Verification of the CNR-ISAC sub-seasonal prediction system
Daniele Mastrangelo and Piero Malguzzi
12:00–12:15
EMS2016-435 | Presentation
Verification of subseasonal forecasts of drought indices
Christoph Spirig, Jonas Bhend, Samuel Monhart, and Mark Liniger
12:15–12:30
EMS2016-65
Predictability of heat waves over West Africa in subseasonal and seasonal reforecasts with CNRM-CM
Lauriane Batté, Constantin Ardilouze, and Michel Déqué
12:30–12:45
EMS2016-684
Atmospheric cryptography: Using weather regimes to ‘crack the code’ of subseasonal-to-seasonal extreme rainfall events
Ángel G. Muñoz, Gabriel Vecchi, Xiaosong Yang, Lisa Goddard, and Andrew W. Robertson
12:45–13:00 EMS2016-708
Harnessing butterflies for improved monthly, seasonal, and interannual forecasts (withdrawn)
Shaun Lovejoy and Lenin Lenin Del Rio Amador
Lunch break
Chairperson: Angel G Munoz
Applications

14:00–14:15
EMS2016-266
Experimenting with climate services to support short term adaptation
Andrea Vajda, Hilppa Gregow, and Pentti Pirinen
14:15–14:30
EMS2016-520
A multi-model application on the sub-seasonal forecasting scale
Alfonso Ferrone, Daniele Mastrangelo, and Piero Malguzzi
14:30–14:45 EMS2016-349
Heat waves in South Asia: diagnosis, prediction and communication for the health community (withdrawn)
Hannah Nissan
14:45–15:00
EMS2016-763
Seasonal forecast of droughts: providing useful information to water management and agribusiness sector
Stefano Materia and Silvio Gualdi
15:00–15:15
EMS2016-192 | Presentation
Analysis of monthly precipitations from a regional ensemble prediction system applied to irrigation management
Raffaele Salerno and Enrico Maggioni
15:15–15:30
EMS2016-96 | Presentation
Using seasonal climate forecasts in dynamic crop model to predict rice yield
Prakash Jha, Panos Athanasiadis, Silvio Gualdi, Vakhtang Shelia, and Gerrit Hoogenboom
15:30–15:45
EMS2016-340
Malaria forecasting in Uganda using S2S and seasonal forecasts
Adrian Mark Tompkins, Felipe Colon-Gonzalez, Francesca Di Giuseppe, and Didas Namanya
15:45–16:00
EMS2016-364 | Presentation
Potential of long-range forecasts in the energy market
Otto Hyvärinen, Antti Mäkelä, Matti Kämäräinen, and Hilppa Gregow