Plinius15-1

Mediterranean storms: meteorological modelling, operational forecasting, global and climate change effects
Conveners: Kostas Lagouvardos , Olivier Caumont 
Orals
 / Wed, 08 Jun, 17:15–19:00 / Room Sala Lipari
 / Thu, 09 Jun, 17:00–18:00 / Room Sala Lipari
Posters
 / Attendance Thu, 09 Jun, 18:00–19:00 / Display Thu, 09 Jun, 09:00–19:00 / Sala Stromboli & Sala Vulcano
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This session welcomes contributions related to:
a) meteorological modelling of mesoscale phenomena that affect the Mediterranean area, associated with severe weather and storms;
b) operational forecasting issues, including ensemble forecasting, data assimilation, data targeting and verification, with emphasis on applications in the Mediterranean region.
c) climate projections of severe weather in the Mediterranean area.
It is well known that operational weather forecasting in the short and medium range is affected by the inaccuracy and uncertainties associated with numerical weather prediction models (e.g. model physics, quality of initial and boundary conditions). For this reason, novel aspects of research on model development and applications, including high-resolution short-range probabilistic forecasting, statistical downscaling, data targeting techniques, coupling between meteorological and hydrological models, data assimilation problems, predictability issues and strategies in ensemble construction are welcome.
Applications of models to studies of meteorological phenomena like cyclogenesis, organized convection, and heavy precipitation, orographic influences on wind and precipitation patterns, dust transport and related processes are of particular interest of this session.
Finally, climate projections for the next decades, based on relatively high-resolution climate models or ensemble of models (with focus on the Mediterranean area) are welcome.