B

Contemporary risk and management
Convenor: Thompson  | Co-Convenors: R. J. Nicholls , J. Jensen 
Oral
 / Thu, 16 Sep, 09:00–15:00  / Room Agathe-Lasch-Lecture Room
Poster
 / Attendance Wed, 15 Sep, 10:30–13:00  / Poster Session: 'Topic Islands'
This session identifies present day risks associated with coastal flooding due to storm surges and how such risks may change over the coming century. The development of new methodologies for improving both short-term (one to two day) forecasts, and centennial scale projections, of coastal flooding are discussed, including the role of dynamically-based and probabilistic models (used separately and in combination), and the statistical analysis of long records of observed sea level. Particular attention is paid to the uncertainty in climate projections of global sea level rise and storminess, and how such information should be used in the development of effective adaptation strategies. The methodological component of the session is complemented by a globally distributed set of case studies of flooding risk for both the present day and the next century. The case studies include both tropical and extra tropical surges and their potential impact on coastal infrastructure, as well as societal and environmental dimensions. The importance of the awareness and involvement of local communities in mitigation and adaptation is highlighted, along with the importance of new technologies (e.g., GIS).