SM4.4/NP3.7

Time-dependent earthquake processes and seismic hazard: physics and statistics (co-organized)
Co-Conveners: M. Cocco , G. Zöller 
Oral Programme
 / Fri, 24 Apr, 13:30–19:00  / Room 17
Poster Programme
 / Attendance Fri, 24 Apr, 08:30–10:00  / Halls X/Y
Seismicity is a dynamical process of great spatio-temporal variability. A number of scaling laws and structural patterns have been established in recent years including universal scaling, (growing) long range correlations and emergence of coherent patterns, which might also be important for assessment of time-dependent seismic hazard.

This session focuses on both emerging systematic methods which can improve our state of understanding of the physical processes responsible for the distribution of earthquakes in space and time, and new models, technologies, and tools which quantify both the seismotectonic process and its evolution. Particular emphasis will be placed on
(i) the triggering mechanism (stress transfer, fluids, ...);
(ii) general models of earthquake occurrence;
(iii) time-dependence of earthquake statistics;
(iv) quantitative testing of hypothetical models; and
(v) the implications for time-dependent hazard assessment.