NH4.11

Time and intensity prediction in landslide hazard assessment
Convener: F. Catani  | Co-Conveners: JL de Lisboa , J.-P. Malet 
Oral Programme
 / Thu, 23 Apr, 13:30–15:00  / Room 18
Poster Programme
 / Attendance Thu, 23 Apr, 17:30–19:00  / Halls X/Y
Add this session to your Personal programme

An important component of landslide hazard assessment is predicting the location and timing of landslides and their impacts. Given the present state of knowledge, understanding, forecasting and controlling the hazard is still an empirical task. It involves qualitative and quantitative analyses, including regional inventories, slope parameters monitoring and model simulations. Analysis can be performed at several spatial and temporal scales according to the objective of the hazard assessment. Accordingly, the techniques used to predict landslide spatial occurrences (e.g. susceptibility) are radically different: empirical or statistical techniques (e.g. multivariate analysis) are generally used at regional scale; more process-based approaches (e.g. limit-equilibrium methods, numerical deformation methods) are applied at the local scale.
However these techniques cannot still be considered truly satisfactory for landslide hazard assessment which should include, by definition, an evaluation of the probability of occurrence of new landslides thus implying the consideration of a time dimension, and the evaluation of the intensity which is a measure of the destructive potential of a landslide.
The objective of this session is to present innovative approaches and techniques (experimental prototypes, monitoring devices, statistical and physically-based models) in order to better assess the temporal occurrence and the frequency of landslide processes and where possible to assess intensities in terms of velocity, thickness of the displaced debris, volume, energy and impact forces.

This session welcomes contributions dealing with but not limited to:
- new monitoring and modelling techniques to identify landslide patterns and possible forerunners that characterize significant changes in landslide dynamics, and therefore time dimension;
- new modelling techniques to forecast the spatial and temporal distribution of landslides, and their intensity at both hillslope and basin scale;
- new methodologies to handle the uncertainties associated to the simulation and prediction of landslide occurrence, in order to progress towards satisfactory probabilistic assessments;
- discussions of future research directions.

The contributions to the Session are planned to be published in a Special Issue of an International peer-reviewed Journal.