GMPV10/NH2.5

Understanding and forecasting of volcanic hazards and risks: paradigms and progress (co-organized)
Convener: Warner Marzocchi  | Co-Convener: Gordon Woo 
Oral Programme
 / Wed, 05 May, 15:30–17:00  / Room 20
Poster Programme
 / Attendance Wed, 05 May, 17:30–19:00  / Hall XL
Volcanic hazard and risk studies have a prominent role, both for society and volcanology itself, being the principal interface between science and public policy. Nevertheless, volcanic risk has been usually managed without being effectively measured. The main reason
lies in the scarce knowledge, extreme complexity, nonlinearity, and large number of barely observable degrees of freedom of a volcanic system. These sources of uncertainty make full volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting very difficult to assess. Recent progress in
volcanic hazard assessment and eruption forecasting, as well as new paradigms in risk assessment, lead to significant improvements in our capability to manage short and long-term volcanic emergencies. This session aims at reporting the most recent progress in these fields, and on related topics.

Contributions to this session would cover studies on volcanic hazard assessment; short- and long-term eruption forecasting; volcanic risk assessment; scientific and practical management of volcanic unrest; and experience of real volcanic emergencies.