HS4.1/NH1.11Flash floods: observations, modeling, forecasting and risk management (co-organized)
|Convener: Marco Borga | Co-Conveners: Jan Szolgay , Giuseppe Tito Aronica , Günter Blöschl , Eric Gaume|
The management of flash flood hazards and risks is a critical component of public safety and quality of life. Flash-floods develop at space and time scales that conventional observation systems are not able to monitor for rainfall and river discharge. Consequently, the atmospheric and hydrological generating mechanisms of flash-floods are poorly understood, leading to highly uncertain forecasts of these events.
This session therefore focuses on progress in flash flood observations, modelling and forecasting , with uncertainty estimation through innovative observation concepts and improved process understanding. In particular, methods are sought to deal with short lead times and limited data availability involved in flash flood forecasting. The social impacts of these floods is also of great importance.
Contributions could cover:
i) use of radar, lightning, satellite and storm tracking monitoring technology to estimate rain rate for heavy rainfall events, and its uncertainty;
ii) use of findings from post-event field campaigns for inference of runoff peaks and timing at multiple site on the river network, and methods for interpretation of these data;
iii) use of remote sensing, real-time modelling and in situ measurements to estimate soil moisture at the onset on an event;
iv) analysis of the atmospheric and hydrologic controls on flash flooding, change of dominant process types with flood severity, threshold values and their relation to catchment characteristics;
v) geomorphological processes and sediment dynamics during flash-flood events;
vi) analysis of flash flood vulnerability; and
vii) application of the above concepts in flash flood risk management.