CL1.17/EG1Reconstructing the climate of the last two millennia (including Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture) (co-organized)
|Convener: J. Luterbacher | Co-Conveners: F. González-Rouco , E. Zorita , L. von Gunten|
This session aims to highlight new research seeking to improve our understanding of past climate variations covering the past 2000 years at regional to continental scale. We especially welcome approaches that present new high-resolution proxies quantitatively and statistical methods that amalgamate different proxies with different temporal resolution. We are also interested in studies involving proxy data-climate model inter-comparisons, preferentially at continental and regional scales. This session also aims at promoting the PAGES (Past Global Changes) Regional 2k Network (http://www.pages-igbp.org/workinggroups/2k-network) that was set up to advance and coordinate the production of detailed quantitative continental climate reconstructions of the last 2000 years using new statistical methods and combining terrestrial and marine proxies.
Tuesday, 24 April, 1030 am, room 15:
Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture by Prof. Dr. M.E. Mann;
Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA -
The Past as Prologue: Learning from the Climate Changes in Past Centuries -
I will review work over the past decade aimed at establishing the nature of, and factors underlying, patterns of large scale climate variability in past centuries. I will discuss evidence from proxy climate reconstructions spanning the past millennium, the comparison of proxy reconstructions with simulations with climate model simulations forced by past natural and anthropogenic forcing, and results from climate modeling experiments in which proxy evidence is assimilated directly into coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations. I will also discuss insights from proxy forward modeling that suggest the possibility that estimates of climate sensitivity derived entirely or partly from tree-ring evidence of past temperature changes may be biased low.