NH2.1Modeling of Volcanic Hazards (including Arne Richter Award for Outstanding Young Scientists Lecture)
|Convener: S. Charbonnier | Co-Convener: C. Bonadonna|
Volcanic hazards include lava flows, debris flows and avalanches, pyroclastic density currents and surges, ash/tephra fall and tsunamis, all of which may have devastating consequences for local communities and the economy, transport and the natural environment. An important component to understanding the behavior of the physical processes that act during a volcanic eruption is the development and implementation of accurate and usable forecast models. Many volcanic processes are complex and highly non-linear such that even minor changes in their physical properties can significantly influence their potential impact. Such attributes present significant challenges to the modeling of volcanic eruptive events. Recent progress with analogue, analytical and numerical models has offered noteworthy insights into the fundamental characteristics of volcanic hazards. These advancements allow for better understanding, more realistic model outcomes such that the impact of a potential hazardous event can be correctly determined and appropriate actions taken. We invite contributions from all those involved in experimental, theoretical, probabilistic and numerical studies of volcanic hazards. This session aims to draw together modeling contributions in order to highlight new approaches, methodologies and results.