NH2.1Modelling of Volcanic Hazards and Dynamic Quantitative Risk Estimation
|Convener: Sylvain Charbonnier | Co-Conveners: Henry Odbert , Costanza Bonadonna , Stephen Sparks , Antonio Costa|
Volcanic hazards include lava flows, debris flows and avalanches, pyroclastic density currents, ash/tephra fall and tsunamis, all of which may have devastating consequences for local communities and the economy, transport and the natural environment. An important component to understanding the behaviour of the physical processes that act during a volcanic eruption is the development and implementation of accurate and usable forecast models. Many volcanic processes are complex and highly non-linear such that even minor changes in their physical properties can significantly influence their potential impact. Such attributes present significant challenges to the modelling of volcanic eruptive events. Recent progress with analogue, analytical and numerical models has offered noteworthy insights into the fundamental characteristics of volcanic hazards. These advancements allow for better understanding, more realistic model outcomes such that the impact of a potential hazardous event can be correctly determined and appropriate actions taken.
The risks posed by volcanic hazards may be estimated via Quantitative Risk Analyses (QRAs) which attempt to incorporate the likelihood of hazards and their impact footprint, according to expectations of how hazards would evolve and to the exposure and vulnerability of people and property at risk. In regions around volcanoes that are erupting or have potential to erupt, QRAs can provide a useful tool for guiding decision makers on matters relating to risk mitigation. The usefulness of any risk model depends not only on how robust it is in incorporating realistic distributions for potential hazardous events,
but also on how accurately the uncertainty of those distributions can be captured. Often the timely availability of a risk analysis and how it is adapted and updated through time are critical for the analysis
to have real world impact in a developing crisis. Combining these requirements is a major challenge in real-time volcano risk monitoring.
We invite abstracts on topics relating to the development experimental, theoretical, probabilistic and numerical studies of volcanic hazards and how output from such studies, combined with monitoring data and expert judgement can be incorporated in models
which aim to deliver risk analysis as an additional tool before and during volcanic eruptions.