NH4.1/SM3.4Extreme seismic hazard, disaster risk and societal implications (co-organized)
|Convener: Alik Ismail-Zadeh | Co-Convener: Antonella Peresan
This session covers three related topics.
1. Extreme seismic events and hazards assessment.
Recent extreme seismic events have showed that there is a significant underestimation of earthquake hazard in the places where the events occurred. This part of the session is aimed to discuss the concept, problems, and new approaches in seismic hazard assessments and to answer the questions: Is the modern probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) aimed to protect people against extreme events? Could deterministic approach (DSHA) do a better job? How could extremes be assessed and incorporated into seismic hazard studies? Do policy makers and the society need the maps of seismic hazards? What is still missing in seismic hazard assessment?
2. Earthquake Risk and Loss Estimates.
The techniques to perform the several steps in estimating losses are not yet well established. Innovative approaches are needed to improve the reliability of loss estimates worldwide. There exist great differences in the quality and quantity of information depending on a countries level of development. Refinements in both, deterministic and probabilistic approaches are being tested. The accuracy of input parameters for earthquakes in near-real-time continues to be an issue. Especially the rapid estimates of depth, magnitude, rupture direction, and rupture dimensions are not yet at the level that would be desirable and can be achieved. This part of the session invites contributions regarding any of the aforementioned topics.
3. Why natural hazard assessment and mitigation sometimes fail?
This part of the session aims to promote discussion of methods and experiences in natural hazard assessment (not only seismic), modeling, communication, and mitigation, with the goal of improving them. Contributions to the following topics are expected: (i) issues and challenges in seismic, tsunami, and other natural hazard assessment and mitigation; (ii) theoretical issues and development of testing strategies; (iii) tools for assessment and validation of models; (iv) lessons learnt from recent disasters and their application to models' revision and improvement; and (v) development of cost-effective mitigation strategies.