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NH2.2/AS4.23

Advances in Assessing Short-term Hazard & Risk from Volcanic Unrest or Eruption (co-organized)
Convener: Henry Odbert  | Co-Conveners: Joachim Gottsmann , Jacopo Selva , Laura Sandri , Bettina Scheu 
Orals
 / Wed, 30 Apr, 08:30–10:00  / Room G8
Posters
 / Attendance Wed, 30 Apr, 17:30–19:00  / Blue Posters
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Hazards from erupting volcanoes can include lava flows, debris flows and avalanches, pyroclastic density currents, ash/tephra fall and tsunamis. Volcanic unrest - which often precedes but does not necessarily lead to an eruption - can also involve hazardous phenomena. In order to improve our capacity to forecast volcanic hazards, it is crucial to understand the causative links between sub-surface processes and observational data. It is equally important to quantify the uncertainty in our understanding of such links and its bearing on future hazardous events. Effective risk management thus demands the provision of early and reliable information of changes in the subsurface dynamics of a volcano and assessment of how those changes may manifest as potential sources of risk.

Volcanic risk assessments incorporate the likelihood of hazards and their impact footprint, according to expectations of how hazards could evolve andthe potential exposure and vulnerability of people and property at risk. In regions around volcanoes that are erupting or have potential to erupt, scientific advice may be sought for risk management decision support. The utility of any risk model depends not only on how robust it is in forming a realistic and comprehensive assessment of potential hazardous events, but also on how accurately associated uncertainties are captured and communicated. The risk assessment must be made rapidly available, and adapted and updated through time as new information becomes available if the analysis is to have practical value in a developing crisis. Meeting these requirements is a major challenge in real-time volcano risk monitoring.

We invite abstracts on topics relating to the development of experimental, theoretical, probabilistic and numerical studies of hazards associated with volcanic eruptions and unrest. We will explore how the output from such studies, combined with monitoring data and/or expert judgement can be incorporated in models that aim to deliver risk analysis as a practical tool for use before and during volcanic crises.

Invited Abstract: C. Connor "Developing International Guidelines on Volcanic Hazard Assessments for Nuclear Facilities"