OS1.3Seasonal to Decadal Prediction in and around the North Atlantic
|Convener: Neil Wells | Co-Convener: Adam Scaife|
Some meteorological services are starting to provide seasonal to decadal predictions using high resolution (0.25 deg or less in the ocean) coupled ocean-atmosphere models. This session will discuss the scientific merits underpinning these models for seasonal to decadal prediction as well as effects on atmospheric predictability. Seasonal and decadal forecasts already show signs of useful predictability in the North Atlantic and ocean SST signals can be preserved below the surface mixed layer on interannual timescales. However many outstanding questions remain: Does the ocean provide seasonal to decadal predictability over land around the Atlantic basin? Is variability in the ocean-atmosphere system simply a reaction to atmospheric events? is there a dynamic coupling between the atmosphere and ocean; or are there signals internal to the ocean itself? Oceanographers are also providing measurements the ocean circulation and its heat and salt content on a near real time basis. Are these measurements being put to optimal use to create initial conditions for forecasts? and do the measurements provide useful predictability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system? if so on what time scales? This session welcomes submissions on all aspects of prediction for the Atlantic basin.