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Nonlinear Dynamics of the Atmosphere, Ocean and the Climate System
Convener: Christian Franzke  | Co-Conveners: Henk A. Dijkstra , Frank Kwasniok , Thierry Huck , Klaus Dethloff , Anna von der Heydt , Michel Crucifix 
 / Fri, 17 Apr, 10:30–12:00
 / Attendance Fri, 17 Apr, 13:30–15:00

Recent years have seen a substantial progress in the understanding of the nonlinear processes responsible for important dynamical aspects of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-climate system. In particular, the low-frequency variability (LFV) on seasonal to decadal time scales is now known to arise from irregular transitions between distinct atmospheric and oceanic regimes, as well as from the interaction between low- and high-frequency modes. Moreover, the application of the methods of dynamical systems theory (DST) has shown that a significant part of the LFV is governed by low-order nonlinear dynamics.

In this context the session is open to contributions on all aspects of the nonlinear dynamics of the atmosphere, the ocean and the climate system. Communications based on theoretical and modeling studies, as well as on experimental investigations are welcome. Studies that span the range of model hierarchy from idealized models to complex coupled AOGCMs, use observational data and those in which the methods of DST are applied are particularly encouraged. The session will discuss how natural variations due to internal nonlinear dynamical processes might contribute to the observed decadal climate variability and climate trends, what kind of circulation regimes occur, what is their origin, and how they have changed in the past and could change in the future. We also invite contributions focusing on seasonal to decadal predictability and tipping points.