CL3.4/AS1.4/CR6.5/OS1.9Polar Climate Predictability and Prediction (co-organized)
|Convener: Neven-Stjepan Fuckar | Co-Conveners: Virginie Guemas , Ed Hawkins , Matthieu Chevallier , Torben Koenigk , Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth|
The Arctic sea ice cover and many other elements of the cryosphere are experiencing significant changes over the modern observational era. The polar climate is crucial for the Earth’s energy and water budget, and its variability and change have direct socio-economic impacts. However, most of climate models are not yet in position to provide us with accurate predictions of polar climate. We welcome presentations advancing understanding of the mechanisms that control polar climate variability on sub-seasonal to multi-decadal timescales and climate change. We encourage submissions that examine sources of polar climate predictability in a hierarchy of models, and link polar processes and predictions with mid- and low-latitude climate. We look forward to studies using remote sensing data, field observations, proxy data, theory and numerical models encompassing climate projections, reanalyses and forecast systems. This session aims to further connection between the atmospheric, oceanic and cryospheric research and operational communities.