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Integrated Environmental Prediction: Seamless coupled modelling of the dynamics and chemistry of the atmosphere, ocean and land
Convener: Alexander Baklanov  | Co-Conveners: Thorsten Wagener , Johannes Flemming , Georg Grell , Huw Lewis , Pierre Pellerin 
 / Mon, 18 Apr, 13:30–15:15
 / Attendance Mon, 18 Apr, 17:30–19:00

As the societal impacts of hazardous weather and other environmental pressures grow, the need for integrated predictions which can represent the numerous feedbacks and linkages between sub-systems of our environment is greater than ever. This has led to development of a new generation of high resolution coupled prediction tools to represent the two-way interactions between different components of our environment. For example a new generation of online integrated Atmospheric Chemical Transport (ACT) and Meteorology (Numerical Weather Prediction and Climate) models represent the interactions between different atmospheric processes including chemistry (both gases and aerosols), clouds, radiation, boundary layer, emissions, meteorology and climate. In parallel, coupled environmental prediction at km-scale which include feedbacks between the atmosphere, land surface and coastal oceans aim to better represent the interactions in the water cycle, to provide tools for improved natural hazard response or water management for example.
Contributions are invited on different aspects of integrated model development, evaluation and understanding. A number of application areas of new integrated modelling developments are expected to be considered, including:
i) improved numerical weather prediction (NWP) and chemical weather forecasting (CWF) with short-term feedbacks of aerosols and chemistry on meteorological variables,
ii) two-way interactions between atmospheric pollution/ composition and climate variability/change.
iii) improved prediction of atmosphere and/or ocean state through closer coupling between the component models to represent the two-way feedbacks and exchange of the atmospheric and ocean boundary layer properties,
iv) more complete simulation of the hydrological cycle, through linking NWP, land surface, hydrological and ocean circulation models.
This session aims to share experience and best practice in integrated prediction, including:
(i) Strategy and framework for online integrated modelling;
(ii) Progress on design and development of coupled prediction systems;
(iii) Interactions, parameterisations and feedback mechanisms between sub-systems;
(iv) Data assimilation in integrated models;
(v) Evaluation, validation, and applications of integrated systems.

The Section on Atmospheric dynamics & chemistry interactions is organizing for many years and was initiated by the COST Action ES1004 'European framework for online integrated air quality and meteorology modelling (EuMetChem)' and linked with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and WCRP research programs, Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) and AQMEII initiative.

This year session is dedicated to the Book “Seamless prediction of the Earth system: from minutes to months” recently published by the WMO World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), presents the book and discusses the new WMO WWRP approach of Seamless coupled Earth System modeling (the book is available online at: Dr. Gilbert Brunet (Research Director, Environment Canada) - a lead author of the book - will give an invited talk on the session.

Public information: This year session is dedicated to a new WMO publication "Seamless Prediction of the Earth System: From Minutes to Months":
The book provides a consolidated road map for future weather research to foster the science needed to make society less vulnerable to high-impact weather.
Dr. Gilbert Brunet (Research Director, Environment Canada) - a lead author of the book - will give an invited talk on the session.
Watch the video clip here: