NH3.9Uncertainty and quality evaluation in landslide hazard and risk assessment (including Sergey Soloviev Medal Lecture)
|Convener: Paola Reichenbach | Co-Conveners: Andreas Günther , Mihai Micu|
Different types of landslides occur in all geographic regions in response to a wide range of conditions and triggering processes that include extreme rainfall events, earthquakes, and human activities. In addition to direct losses, landslides also cause significant environmental damage and societal disruption. The goal of many landslide studies is the determination of the risk posed by existing or future slope failures. To achieve this goal, information on landslide hazard and vulnerability to landslides is required. Based on landslide typology and assessment scales, a wide array of different evaluation techniques for hazard and risk analyses is available.
Several qualitative or quantitative methods and techniques have been proposed to evaluate landslide hazard and risk in different physio- and geographical settings and for different types of slope processes affecting the environment at different spatial scales. In spite of numerous case studies described in the literature, few analyses have been presented to assess the quality of spatiotemporal landslide hazard and risk zonations. Additionally, the quantitative evaluation of uncertainties associated with spatial landslide hazard and risk predictions is a topic where modern research should focus on.
In the session, presentations on landslide conditioning and triggering factors sensitivity analysis, landslide hazard models reliability and prediction skill, errors and uncertainties associated to hazard and risk assessment at local, regional or national scale and in different physiographic, climatic, and geological settings are solicited. Papers that provide information on quality, reliability and limitations of spatially distributed process-oriented or statistical models are encouraged. Model fitting performance and uncertainty, model validation and model prediction skill should be critically presented and analyzed. Development and applications of landslide hazard and risk zonation in environmental risk management and governance, at different scale are welcome.