HS1.6Advances in Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Earth and Environmental Systems Models
|Convener: Amin Haghnegahdar | Co-Conveners: Saman Razavi , Hoshin Gupta , Mary Hill , Cristina Prieto|
Proper characterization of uncertainty remains a major challenge, and is inherent to many aspects of modelling such as structural development, hypothesis testing and parameter estimation, and the adequate characterization of forcing data and initial and boundary conditions. To address this challenge, methods for a) uncertainty analysis (UA) that seek to quantify uncertainty (and how it propagates through a system/model), and b) the closely-related methods for sensitivity analysis (SA) that evaluate the role and significance of uncertain factors (in the functioning of systems/models), have proved to be very helpful.
This session invites contributions that discuss advances, both in theory and/or application, in methods for SA/UA applicable to Earth and Environmental Systems Models (EESMs). Topics of interest include (but are not limited to):
1) Novel methods for effective characterization of sensitivity and uncertainty
2) Single- versus Multi-criteria SA/UA
3) Metric specification for model evaluation
4) Approaches that combine the strengths of SA and UA methods
5) Improving the computational efficiency of SA/UA (efficient sampling, surrogate modelling, parallel computing, model pre-emption, etc.)
Contributions addressing any or all aspects of sensitivity/uncertainty, including those related to structural development, hypothesis testing, parameter estimation, forcing data, and initial and boundary conditions are invited.
SPECIAL NOTE: Confirmed invited speaker: Thorsten Wagener, University of Bristol, UK, "Improved workflows for the implementation of sensitivity analysis".