HS2.4.3Impacts of climatic and environmental changes on catchment hydrology.
|Convener: Axel Anderson | Co-Conveners: Ilja van Meerveld , Renata Romanowicz , Mikolaj Piniewski , Hege Hisdal , Martijn Booij|
Climate- and land use change can influence the timing and magnitude of seasonal low and high flows and a catchment's response to extreme events. How climate- and land use change affect streamflow is highly variable and sometimes the changes are unexpected. The impacts of climate changes on high and low flow regimes may, for example, be quite different than the changes in seasonal or extreme precipitation. Changes in flow regimes can have a direct effect on society and water dependent sectors, including agriculture, forestry, fishing, hydropower, domestic water supply, and tourism. It is therefore important for society as a whole that the changes in flow regimes, and particularly the occurrence and patterns of hydrological extremes, are well understood for both the present and the future climate. In addition, it is important to investigate what characteristics make a catchment sensitive or resistant to change. This knowledge is a prerequisite for adaptation of water resources management to changing hydrological conditions.
This session will address both methodological and practical issues related to the analysis and modelling of hydrological responses to (extreme) events within the context of climate or land use change. We request contributions from scientists working on various aspects of catchment hydrology and particularly those studying how hydrological processes and flow regimes change as a result of climate or land use change. Potential topics include:
1) Field and modelling studies that show how dominant hydrological processes and catchment responses change in response to climate or land use change
2) Field and modeling studies that quantify the sensitivity or resistance of catchments to climate or land use change or determine which catchments are most sensitive to change.
3) Attribution of changes in floods and droughts to environmental changes, including climate change, land use change and changes in water management.
4) Detection of trends and shifts in observed and projected hydro-climatological data; analysis of possible sources of changes (e.g. relationships with atmospheric circulation patterns).
5) Non-stationary frequency analysis for extreme hydrological events (floods and droughts).
6) Adaptation of hydrological models to varying conditions in a catchment, including the effects of changing snow cover (parametric/structural non-stationarity).
7) Development of methods for quantifying uncertainty in predicted hydrological regimes for future climate and land use scenarios resulting from the propagation of uncertainty from multiple ensembles, hydrological model structure and parametric uncertainty
8) Adaptation issues: expected future changes in floods and droughts and how these may affect various sectors; adaptation strategies for managing the impact of climate change on hydrological extremes; feedback mechanisms in water-society interactions and their impact on adaptation strategies.