AS1.18/CL3.09The global monsoons in current, future and palaeoclimates and their role in extreme weather and climate events (co-organized)
|Convener: Jianping Li | Co-Conveners: Andrew Turner , Pascal Terray , Rondrotiana Barimalala , Alexis Licht|
The global monsoon and its regional monsoon components have profound impacts on society and are among the most complex phenomena involving coupled atmosphere-ocean-land interactions. Monsoons can cause severe floods and droughts in the tropics and some parts of the subtropics as well as undergoing climate variability on subseasonal, interannual and decadal to centennial (or longer) time scales. In addition to its profound local effects, monsoon variability is also associated with global-scale impacts since the energy released by monsoon systems can influence the global circulation. However, it is notoriously difficult to simulate and forecast the monsoons at all temporal scales, in numerical weather prediction (NWP), subseasonal-to-seasonal and decadal predictions. A better understanding of monsoon physics and dynamics, with more accurate simulation and prediction of monsoon systems is therefore of a great practical importance to the atmospheric sciences community and society.
The combination of modern- and palaeo-monsoon research can help us to better understand the fundamental nature of the monsoon and its variability. Comparisons of monsoon responses to large-scale forcing found in the palaeoclimate record can help us to understand how the monsoon will respond to changes in forcing in the future, potentially allowing us to constrain estimates of climate change. Similarly, the wealth of observations, reanalysis products and modelling work in the contemporary period can help us piece together data from point-proxy records of the past.
This session therefore invites presentations on all aspects of monsoon research in contemporary, future and palaeoclimate periods (observational, modeling, attribution, prediction and projection) from the natural and anthropogenic variability and predictability of the monsoon systems on multiple time scales, to the impact of monsoons on extreme weather and climate events (floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, heat waves, etc.), as well as the links between monsoons and global climate change and feedbacks with the biosphere.