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HS1.5

Advances in Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Earth and Environmental Systems Models
Convener: Amin Haghnegahdar  | Co-Conveners: Saman Razavi , Hoshin Gupta , Cristina Prieto , Mary Hill , William Becker 
Orals
 / Thu, 27 Apr, 13:30–15:00  / Room 2.15
Posters
 / Attendance Thu, 27 Apr, 17:30–19:00  / Hall A
Proper characterization of uncertainty remains a major challenge, and is inherent to many aspects of modelling such as structural development, hypothesis testing and parameter estimation, and the adequate characterization of forcing data and initial and boundary conditions. To address this challenge, methods for a) uncertainty analysis (UA) that seek to quantify uncertainty (and how it propagates through a system/model), and b) the closely-related methods for sensitivity analysis (SA) that evaluate the role and significance of uncertain factors (in the functioning of systems/models), have proved to be very helpful.
This session invites contributions that discuss advances, both in theory and/or application, in methods for SA/UA applicable to Earth and Environmental Systems Models (EESMs). Topics of interest include (but are not limited to):

1) Novel methods for effective characterization of sensitivity and uncertainty
2) Single- versus Multi-criteria SA/UA
3) Metric specification for model evaluation
4) The role of data information and error on SA/UA (e.g., input/output error, model structure error, etc.)
5) Improving the computational efficiency of SA/UA (efficient sampling, surrogate modelling, parallel computing, model pre-emption, etc.)

Contributions addressing any or all aspects of sensitivity/uncertainty, including those related to structural development, hypothesis testing, parameter estimation, forcing data, and initial and boundary conditions are invited.


IMPORTANT: Invited speaker, Dmitri Kavetski from the University of Adelaide, Australia.
Topic: "Understanding signatures in hydrological calibration - A Bayesian perspective".