NH1.3/HS11.25Flood risk and uncertainty (including Plinius Medal Lecture) (co-organized)
|Convener: Giuseppe Tito Aronica | Co-Conveners: Heiko Apel , Guy J.-P. Schumann|
Predicting current and future flood risk continues to be a major challenge for climatologists, hydrologists and hydraulicians. The complex nature of flood risk challenges established risk assessment methodologies and their modelling components, such as hydrologic and hydraulic simulation. Further, flood risk predictions are characterised by considerable uncertainty, which needs to be evaluated and clearly communicated to decision-makers. This session aims to review state-of-the-art flood risk assessment methodologies on different scales and experiences of recent flood events, the physical processes occurring during flood flows and uncertainties in measurement data and modelling. We welcome submissions in the areas of flood plain risk assessment and uncertainty analysis, floodplain management including new approaches to hydraulic and hydrologic modelling, model calibration and validation. Also, we are interested in contributions that show what kind of information is particularly helpful for reducing uncertainty, as well as measures for flood mitigation and the cost effectiveness of these measures. Since flood risk analyses have to include statements on extreme events, observation data are scarce. Therefore, we particularly invite contributions that address the issue of validation of flood risk analyses.