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Past and future atmospheric temperature changes and their drivers (co-organized)
Convener: Amanda Maycock  | Co-Conveners: Andrea K. Steiner , William Randel 
 / Wed, 26 Apr, 15:30–17:00
 / Attendance Wed, 26 Apr, 17:30–19:00

The temperature structure of Earth’s atmosphere varies through time in response to a variety of natural and anthropogenic drivers. Atmospheric temperature variations may be forced and/or related to internal climate variability, and as a result may have complex spatial and temporal structures. These temperature variations represent vital fingerprints for understanding and attributing the various drivers of Earth’s changing climate.

This new session aims to address the current scientific challenges that surround measuring, modelling, and attributing the drivers of atmospheric temperature changes within the troposphere, stratosphere, and mesosphere. We welcome the latest studies that use observational datasets (e.g., from satellites, aircraft measurements, radiosondes) and numerical models to investigate global and regional atmospheric temperature changes over the past and future. We particularly encourage studies that employ novel observational datasets, those focused on attributing temperature changes to natural and anthropogenic drivers (e.g., well-mixed greenhouse gases, ozone, solar cycle, volcanoes, ENSO and other internal climate modes), and those considering future scenarios for anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosols emissions and their implications for atmospheric temperature changes.

This session aims to further the connections between the atmospheric observation and climate modelling communities.

Solicited presentations from: Lorenzo Polvani (Columbia University) and Ben Santer (TBC; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)