CL3.04/NP5.6 MediaClimate Predictions from monthly, seasonal to decadal time scales (co-organized)
|Convener: Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes | Co-Conveners: Mark A. Liniger , Wolfgang Müller|
Forecasts of climate at decadal, seasonal, and monthly time scales will be discussed in this session. This will include presentations and discussions of predictions for a time horizon of up to ten years from dynamical ensemble and statistical/empirical forecast systems. Further topics include
* forecast quality assessment in various climate components
* physical concepts and processes at the base of predictability
* process-based forecast drift analysis
* bias adjustment
* role of anthropogenic climate change
* ensemble forecast generation and initialization
* post-processing of climate forecasts
* approaches to address model uncertainty
* statistical and dynamical downscaling
* demonstrations of end-user value for climate risk applications and climate-change adaptation
* the use of multi-scale data assimilation approaches to reduce initial shocks
Additionally, contributions on the topics of alternative ensemble generation and super-modelling approaches are welcome.
A special focus will be put on results from the CMIP5-CMIP6 decadal prediction experiments and climate-prediction projects (e.g. CHFP, SPECS, EUPORIAS, APPLICATE, EUCP).