Several types of dangerous phenomena (either natural or man-made) pose a serious risk in many parts of the world. The catastrophic impact of these phenomena can be significantly reduced using different methods of mitigation, thanks to increased ability to assess and predict risks. A fundamental task in hazard evaluation includes the prediction of the area influenced by the hazardous phenomenon, of its evolution in space and time, and the understanding of triggering mechanisms. As concerns specific risk evaluation, a further issue must be analysed in terms of vulnerability.
In recent years, several types of numerical models have been developed to predict the behaviour of dangerous phenomena, starting from their response to trigger factors. Nevertheless, such models still require detailed knowledge of environmental properties (e.g. geological, mechanical, and hydrological) and of boundary conditions, and thus are generally applied in relevant cases and/or small study areas.
Aiming at decreasing the risk, innovative and low-cost approaches may range from modelling to monitoring, to land use planning and knowledge dissemination, to realizing remedial works.
Studies describing innovative methods of monitoring, modelling and simulation (and related methods of calibration and validation, as well as of sensitivity analyses) are solicited. Comparative discussions on potential and limits of different approaches are also within the scope of this session.