NH9.13Including Socio-Economic Dynamics and Feedbacks in Risk Assessment Models (co-organized)
|Convener: Jeroen Aerts | Co-Conveners: Giuliano Di Baldassarre , Sven Fuchs , S. Surminski|
In this session, we address recent advancements in natural hazard risk assessment models. We discuss how to integrate societal feedbacks and spatial and temporal dynamics of the human system (from individuals to global levels) into such models, including feedbacks to extreme events such as floods, earthquakes, droughts, and tropical cyclones.
The demand for reliable risk information, and influence of future drivers on natural hazard risk (climate change and socio-economic trends) is increasing, and is addressed in recent global policies, such as the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw Framework for Loss and Damage. Risk assessment models simulate natural hazard risk over time, and are, for example, used to evaluate adaptation decisions in risk management. Recent risk models use scenario based methods to simulate changes in hazard and exposure. However, most risk assessments assume that vulnerability remains constant across time and space, as though individuals and other stakeholders do not adapt, learn from hazard experiences, or prepare for an event based on risk information or early warning. Therefore, vulnerability in risk assessment is often addressed as an external variable. In reality, however, there is a constant dynamic interplay between the natural system (hydrology, climate, geology) and social vulnerability, as people continuously adapt to natural hazards over time, and human behavior in turn influences vulnerability.
The perspective of integrating societal and behavioral dynamics into quantitative risk assessment methods has sparked novel research, such as in coupling socio-hydrological systems, integrating individual based methods (e.g. agent based models) with risk modelling, and linking methods from the domain of behavioral economics to natural sciences modelling. Such new methods can stimulate research into how society can manage risk, and is of key value to stakeholders such as (re-)insurers, governments, development agencies, and disaster planning and preparedness institutes.
We invite contributions related to natural hazards science, and extremes. We encourage contributions focusing on the human-hydrological systems (floods and droughts), coastal zone risk, earthquake- and windstorm risks, agent based models, risk assessment, behavioral economics, and quantitative adaptive management. We also encourage contributions that demonstrate practical examples of such methods.