CL3.03/AS4.12/BG4.13/HS11.8/NH11.15/NP5.5/SSS13.13Earth System Prediction and Application (co-organized)
|Convener: Andrea Alessandri | Co-Conveners: Yoshimitsu Chikamoto , Noel Keenlyside , June-Yi Lee|
One of the big challenges in climate science is to provide reliable climate predictions on seasonal to decadal and longer timescales, which have a potential to translate into better assessment of multi-scale global and regional climate-related risks. The goal of this session is to improve our knowledge about regional and global climate predictability and their applications to Earth system processes. The topics include (1) the development and validation of multi-scale seasonal-to-decadal climate prediction based on latest Earth system models (2) the multi-scale seasonal-to-decadal predictability of climate-relevant Earth System process and (3) progresses in understanding of the multi-scale climate interactions and feedbacks with the other Earth system components.
This session solicits contributions embracing an Earth System Science approach to the study of coupled parameterizations, coupled processes, impacts of coupling and feedbacks, and analysis/verification of the coupled atmosphere-ocean, atmosphere-land, atmosphere-hydrology, atmosphere-chemistry & aerosols, atmosphere-ice, ocean-hydrology, ocean-ice, ocean-chemistry and climate-biosphere (including human component). Contributions are also sought on initialization methods that optimally use observations from different Earth System components, on assessing and mitigating the impacts of model errors on skill, and on ensemble methods. We also encourage the topic from the climate impact assessment, climate change detection and attribution, and the early warning system based on the climate predictions.