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SM3.01/NH4.15

Looking toward the next generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Models (co-organized)
Convener: Fabrice Cotton  | Co-Conveners: Graeme Weatherill , Stefan Wiemer , Laurentiu Danciu 
Orals
 / Wed, 11 Apr, 13:30–15:00  / Room -2.32
Posters
 / Attendance Wed, 11 Apr, 17:30–19:00  / Hall X2
Recent catastrophic earthquakes, the exponential growth of data, new engineering needs and progress in research are all strong motivations for the exploration and incorporation of new concepts and methods into the assessment of seismic hazards. We invite contributions related to new developments standards in all aspects of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment:
− The definition of earthquake sources and the determination of activity rates, including the assessment of earthquake datasets, calibration of magnitude scales, representation of seismogenic sources and their geological constraints, and the emerging roles of strain and simulation-based earthquake rupture forecasts.
− The estimation of strong ground motion and its uncertainty, from the definition of new Ground Motion Models, the assessment of site effects, the consideration of new parameters to characterise the intensity of the shaking and simulation based method.
− The validation of hazard models including statistical tests of activity rates, calibration of ground motion models, hazard model parameterization and implementation, sensitivity analyses of key parameters and results.
− Case studies of SHA from Europe and around the globe.
− Model building process and related uncertainties, formal elicitation of expert opinion, comprehensive treatment of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, development of innovative testing procedures.
− Contributions related to the ongoing update of the Harmonised European Seismic Hazard model and the emerging EPOS infrastructure on hazard and risk