In this course we will present a dynamical systems framework for the study of atmospheric flows and variability. We will first introduce the concepts of attractors, repellors and recurrence times in a non-rigorous, applied physics fashion. We will move rapidly from the classical examples of the Henon map and Lorenz 1963 butterfly to the experimental attractors as derived from atmospheric data, including reanalyses (20CR, ERA-20C) and climate models (the CMIP5 models).
Next, we will show how dynamical systems theory can help us better understand the origin of low-frequency variability in the atmosphere and open the possibility to perform long term forecasts. We will first illustrate the use of these techniques to analyze the causal dependences between different observables in the context of a low-order coupled ocean-atmosphere model and then to clarify the causality between three different coupled ocean-atmosphere basins: the North Atlantic, the North Pacific and the NINO3.4 region, based on reanalysis data (ORA-20C, the ORAS4 and the ERA-20C).
Please note that a pre-registration is not necessary. The course will be open to participants on a first come-first served basis.
Presenters: D. Faranda, G. Messori and S. Vannitsem.
For any additional information, please contact the conveners.