EGU2020-10820, updated on 12 Mar 2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-10820
EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Southern Hemisphere jet stream: emergent constraints on future shift in zonally varying framework

Camille Li1,2, Fumiaki Ogawa1,2, Martin King3,2, Jerry Tjiputra3,2, Bjørnar Jensen4, and Klaus Johannsen4
Camille Li et al.
  • 1University of Bergen, Geophysical Institute, Bergen, Norway (camille.li@uib.no)
  • 2Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
  • 3NORCE Climate, Bergen Norway
  • 4NORCE Computing, Bergen, Norway

IPCC climate models (CMIP3/5) predict a poleward shift of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) jet stream under global warming, with a large spread across the models. Efforts to find emergent constraints for the future jet shift (response) have relied on the simulated present-day jet position (observable). However, this has been investigated primarily in a zonal-mean framework, which averages out important zonal asymmetries. In this study, we revisit the problem allowing for variations in the longitude, height and season of the response to gain a better physical understanding of the nature of the future jet shift in individual models. Results from a manual data analysis will help guide an exploration of the problem using a big data approach, in particular, the application of a genetic algorithm that finds optimal solutions based on iterative random selection within large sample data spaces.

How to cite: Li, C., Ogawa, F., King, M., Tjiputra, J., Jensen, B., and Johannsen, K.: Southern Hemisphere jet stream: emergent constraints on future shift in zonally varying framework, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-10820, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-10820, 2020.

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