Stochastic comparison of climate model outputs to observed precipitation fields

We compare the stochastic behaviour of precipitation outputs of climate models for the 20^th century to the historical data (stations and reanalysis fields) at several temporal and spatial scales. In particular we examine the marginal distributions and the dependence structure with emphasis on the Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour. The comparison aims to contribute to the quantification of reliability and predictive uncertainty of precipitation climate model outputs over different scales in a framework of assessing their relevance for engineering planning and design.

 

(Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the course "Stochastic Methods" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.)