EGU2020-11028
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-11028
EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: Results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for CMIP6-PMIP4

Bette L. Otto-Bliesner1, Esther C. Brady1, Anni Zhao2, Chris Brierley2, and the PMIP4 and QUIGS team*
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner et al.
  • 1Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States of America
  • 2Department of Geography, University College London, London, United Kingdom
  • *A full list of authors appears at the end of the abstract

The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to CMIP6 is the Tier 1 lig127k experiment, designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models and following a common experimental protocol. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which (except for two) have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments. The Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 2.1 to 5.3°C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong warming over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the piControl in June-July-August and a much-reduced minimum (August-September) summer sea ice extent in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation and areal extent in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 ka than 6 ka.

New syntheses for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model-data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the specified boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions.

The CMIP6-PMIP4 lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, have potential implications for confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, Arctic sea ice, and the stability of the Greenland ice sheet.

PMIP4 and QUIGS team:

Yarrow Axford, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Jeremy Hoffman, Elizabeth Isaacs, Masa Kageyama, Paolo Scussolini, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Charlie Williams, Eric Wolff, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Silvana Ramos Buarque-Giordani, Jian Cao, Anne de Vernal, Maria Vittoria Guarino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Kerim Nisancioglu, Ryouta O'ishi, David Salas Y Melia, Xioaoxu Shi, Marie Sicard, Louise Sime, Robert Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicolas Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhonghi Zhang, Weipeng Zheng

How to cite: Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Brady, E. C., Zhao, A., and Brierley, C. and the PMIP4 and QUIGS team: Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: Results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for CMIP6-PMIP4, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-11028, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-11028, 2020