EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Challenges in Constraining Future Change of Global Land Precipitation in CMIP6 Models

June-Yi Lee1,2, Kyung-Sook Yun1,3, Arjun Babu1,3, Young-Min Yang4, Eui-Seok Chung1,3, Hyo-Eun Oh5, Axel Timmermann1,3, and Kyung-Ja Ha1,2
June-Yi Lee et al.
  • 1IBS Center for Climate Physics (ICCP), Busan, Korea, Republic of Korea (
  • 2Research Center for Climate Sciences and Department of Climate System, Pusan National University
  • 3Pusan National University, Busan, Republic of Korea
  • 4Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education and Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
  • 5Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models have showed substantial inter-model spread in estimating annual global-mean precipitation change per one-degree greenhouse-gas-induced warming (precipitation sensitivity), ranging from -4.5–4.2%oC-1in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, the lowest emission scenario, to 0.2–4.0%oC-1in the RCP 8.5, the highest emission scenario. The observed-based estimations in the global-mean land precipitation sensitivity during last few decades even show much larger spread due to the considerable natural interdecadal variability, role of anthropogenic aerosol forcing, and uncertainties in observation. This study tackles to better quantify and constrain global land precipitation change in response to global warming by analyzing the new range of Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) compared with RCP scenarios in the CMIP5. We show that the range of projected change in annual global-mean land (ocean) precipitation by the end of the 21stcentury relative to the recent past (1995-2014) in the 23 CMIP6 models is over 50% (20%) larger than that in corresponding scenarios of the 40 CMIP5 models. The estimated ranges of precipitation sensitivity in four Tier-1 SSPs are also larger than those in corresponding CMIP5 RCPs. The large increase in projected precipitation change in the highest quartile over ocean is mainly due to the increased number of high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) models in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5, but not over land due to different response of thermodynamic moisture convergence and dynamic processes to global warming. We further discuss key challenges in constraining future precipitation change and source of uncertainties in land precipitation change.

How to cite: Lee, J.-Y., Yun, K.-S., Babu, A., Yang, Y.-M., Chung, E.-S., Oh, H.-E., Timmermann, A., and Ha, K.-J.: Challenges in Constraining Future Change of Global Land Precipitation in CMIP6 Models, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-13455,, 2020.

This abstract will not be presented.