EGU2020-13562
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-13562
EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Towards Conditional Parameter Estimation for Automatic Model Structure Identification: Using Mixed-Integer Calibration for Model Development

Diana Spieler1, Juliane Mai2, Bryan Tolson2, James Craig2, and Niels Schütze1
Diana Spieler et al.
  • 1TU Dresden, Institute for Hydrology and Meteorology, Department of Hydrosciences, Dresden, Germany (diana.spieler@tu-dresden.de)
  • 2University of Waterloo, Faculty of Engineering, Department for Civil & Environmental Engineering, Waterloo, Canada

A recently introduced framework for Automatic Model Structure Identification (AMSI) allows to simultaneously optimize model structure choices (integer decision variables) and parameter values (continuous decision variables) in hydrologic modelling. By combining the mixed-integer optimization algorithm DDS and the flexible hydrologic modelling framework RAVEN, AMSI is able to test a vast number of model structure and parameter combinations in order to identify the most suitable model structure for representing the rainfall runoff behavior of a catchment. The model structure and all potentially active model parameters are calibrated simultaneously. This causes a certain degree of inefficiency during the calibration process, as variables might be perturbed that are not currently relevant for the tested model structure. In order to avoid this, we propose an adaption of the current DDS algorithm allowing for conditional parameter estimation. Parameters will only be perturbed during the calibration process if they are relevant for the model structure that is currently tested. The conditional parameter estimation setup will be compared to the standard DDS algorithm for multiple AMSI test cases. We will show if and how conditional parameter estimation increases the efficiency of AMSI.

How to cite: Spieler, D., Mai, J., Tolson, B., Craig, J., and Schütze, N.: Towards Conditional Parameter Estimation for Automatic Model Structure Identification: Using Mixed-Integer Calibration for Model Development, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-13562, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-13562, 2020

This abstract will not be presented.