Modelling the response of Mediterranean maize yields to projected climate change

Understanding the effects of different combinations of sowing dates and choice of cultivars on maize yield is essential to develop appropriate climate change adaptation strategies. In this study, we explore the maize yield response of two models to changes in sowing dates and cultivars. In particular, we assess whether crop conditions around flowering can explain the variability of irrigated, potential crop yields across sowing dates and cultivars in Mediterranean climatic conditions where high temperatures may change the length of the grain filling period. Then, we investigate these responses under future climate projected conditions till 2060 by using Euro-CORDEX regional climate model simulations.

Main findings show that the approach based on anthesis conditions outperforms the model based on partitioning. This holds both under current and future climate conditions. Finally, both approaches agree on a warmer climate translating into lower yields (13-18%, average reduction with respect to the current climate conditions) than can only be partially offset by changes in phenology and sowing dates.