EGU2020-5049
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5049
EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

A multi-risk assessment of water scarcity in the south-eastern Italian Alps using a System Dynamics approach

Stefano Terzi1,2, Janez Sušnik3, Sara Masia3, Silvia Torresan4, Stefan Schneiderbauer1, and Andrea Critto2,4
Stefano Terzi et al.
  • 1Eurac Research, Institute for Earth Observation, Viale Druso 1, 39100, Bolzano, Italy
  • 2Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Via Torino 155, I-30172 Venezia-Mestre, Venice, Italy
  • 3Integrated Water System and Governance Department, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, 2601DA, Delft, Netherlands
  • 4Fondazione Centro-Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, I-73100, Lecce, Italy

Mountain regions are facing multiple impacts due to climate change and anthropogenic activities. Shifts in precipitation and temperature are affecting the available water influencing a variety of economic activities that still rely on large quantities of water (e.g. ski tourism, energy production and agriculture). The Alps are among those areas where recent events of decreased water availability triggered emerging water disputes and spread of economic impacts across multiple sectors and from upstream high water availability areas to downstream high water demand areas. In order to make our water management systems more resilient, there is a need to unravel the interplays and dependencies that can lead to multiple impacts across multiple sectors. However, current assessments dealing with climate change usually account for a mono sectoral and single risk perspective.

This study hence shows an integrative assessment of multi-risk processes across strategic sectors of the Alpine economy. System dynamics modelling (SDM) is applied as a powerful tool to evaluate the multiple impacts stemming from interactions and feedbacks among water-food-energy economic sectors of the Noce river catchment in the Province of Trento (Italy).

The SDM developed for the Noce catchment combined outputs from physically based models to evaluate water availability and statistical assessments for water demands from three main sectors: (i) apple orchards cultivation, (ii) water releases from large dam reservoirs for hydropower production and (iii) domestic and seasonal tourism activities.

Hydrological results have been validated on historical time series (i.e. 2009-2017) and projected in the future considering RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios for 2021-2050 medium term and 2041-2070 long term. Results show a precipitation decrease affecting river streamflow with consequences on water stored and turbined in all dam reservoirs of the Noce catchment, especially for long-term climate change scenarios. Moreover, temperature scenarios will increase the amount of water used for agricultural irrigation from upstream to downstream. Nevertheless, decreasing population projections will have a beneficial reduction of water demand from residents, counterbalancing the increasing demand from the other sectors.

Finally, the integrated SDM fostered discussions in the Noce catchment on interplays between climate change and anthropogenic activities to tackle climate-related water scarcity.

How to cite: Terzi, S., Sušnik, J., Masia, S., Torresan, S., Schneiderbauer, S., and Critto, A.: A multi-risk assessment of water scarcity in the south-eastern Italian Alps using a System Dynamics approach , EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-5049, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5049, 2020.

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