EGU2020-6627
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-6627
EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Analysis of Gust Characteristics and Forecast Correction for the 2022 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games in Zhangjiakou

Jiarui Li1, Quan Dong1, and Rong Li2
Jiarui Li et al.
  • 1National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China(dongquan@cma.gov.cn)
  • 2Lanzhou Central Meteorological Observatory, Gansu Meteorological Bureau, Lanzhou, China(lirong_cuit@163.com)

In order to meet the high demand for advanced weather forecasts in the 2022 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games, hourly wind observation data of some venues in Zhangjiakou City  is analyzed. Based on the specific gust characteristics in these venues, deviation of numerical weather prediction model is initially calculated to demonstrate the systematic bias of instantaneous wind speed forecasts derived from ECMWF. Additionally, a statistical down scaling method is further used by establishing the relationship between model forecasts and observation. Then independent samples are imported to the established equations to generate revised outputs. Tests show that the established equations have a better effect on forecasting the instantaneous wind speed than original model outputs and the corrected outputs have significantly better accuracy in predicting the instantaneous wind speed in the studied area.

How to cite: Li, J., Dong, Q., and Li, R.: Analysis of Gust Characteristics and Forecast Correction for the 2022 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games in Zhangjiakou , EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-6627, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-6627, 2020

This abstract will not be presented.