EGU2020-7829
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-7829
EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Prediction of CME arrivals; differences based on stereoscopic heliospheric imager data

Jürgen Hinterreiter1,2, Tanja Amerstorfer1, Martin A. Reiss1, Manuela Temmer2, Christian Möstl1, Maike Bauer1,2, Ute V. Amerstorfer1, Rachel L. Bailey1, and Andreas J. Weiss1,2
Jürgen Hinterreiter et al.
  • 1Space Research Institute Graz, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Graz, Austria (juergen.hinterreiter@oeaw.ac.at)
  • 2Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Graz, Austria

Forecasting the arrival time and speed of CMEs is of high importance. However, uncertainties in the forecasts are high. We present the results of post-event prediction of CME arrivals using ELEvoHI (ELlipse Evolution model based on Heliospheric Imager observations) ensemble modeling. The model uses time-elongation profiles provided by HI (Heliospheric Imager) onboard STEREO (Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory) and assumes an elliptical shape of the CME front. The drag force exerted by the ambient solar wind is an essential factor influencing the dynamic evolution of CMEs in the heliosphere. To account for this effect, ELEvoHI utilizes the modeled ambient solar wind provided by the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model. We carefully select 12 CMEs between February 2010 and July 2012, which show clear signatures in STEREO-A and STEREO-B HI images, have a corresponding in-situ signature, and propagate close to the ecliptic plane. As input to ELEvoHI, we make use of STEREO-A and STEREO-B time-elongation profiles for each CME and compare the predicted arrival times and speeds based on both vantage points with each other. We present our model results and discuss possible reasons for the differences in the arrival times of up to 15 hours.

How to cite: Hinterreiter, J., Amerstorfer, T., Reiss, M. A., Temmer, M., Möstl, C., Bauer, M., Amerstorfer, U. V., Bailey, R. L., and Weiss, A. J.: Prediction of CME arrivals; differences based on stereoscopic heliospheric imager data, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-7829, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-7829, 2020

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