The scientific base of the process of seismic risk mitigation involves various seismic hazard models, developed at different time scales and by different methods, as well as the use of information as complete and reliable as possible about past seismicity. Some recent large earthquakes caused extensive damage in areas where some models indicated low seismic hazard, leading to an increased demand for criteria to objectively assess how well seismic hazard models are performing. This session aims to tackle theoretical and implementation issues, as well as aspects of science policy and diplomacy, which are all essential elements towards effective disasters mitigation, and include:
⇒ earthquake hazard and risk estimation at different time and space scales, including extreme seismic events;
⇒ methods for assessing performances of seismic hazard and risk models;
⇒ discussions of the pros and cons of deterministic, neo-deterministic, probabilistic, and intensity-based seismic hazard assessments
⇒ long-term evidences about past great earthquakes, as well as evidences of lack of them, including unconventional seismological observations (e.g. impact on caves, ancient constructions and other deformations evidences);
⇒ earthquake hazard assessment in terms of macro-seismic intensity;
⇒ seismic hazard and risk assessment and their temporal variability, including the contribution of aftershocks and earthquake-induced cascading effects (e.g. landslides, tsunamis, etc).
We invite contributions related to: hazard and risk assessment methods and their performance in applications; verification methods that are suitable to quantify seismic hazard estimates and that can be applied to limited and/or heterogeneous observations (ranging from recent records of ground shaking parameters to past intensity data); seismic hazard/risk monitoring and modeling; and risk communication and mitigation.
The session will provide an opportunity to share best practices and experience gained with different methods, highlighting existing gaps and future research directions. Also, the session would like to discuss issues related to disaster science policy and diplomacy, providing opportunities to advance our understanding of disaster risk in "all its dimensions of vulnerability, capacity, exposure of persons and assets, hazard characteristics and the environment", while simultaneously building bridges between nations, where relationships could otherwise be strained.