SM3.2

The analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity and the development of physical
and statistical models of seismicity have substantially improved our understanding of
earthquake occurrence. Such endeavor has considerably benefited from the availability of
new techniques and high-resolution, high-quality datasets. However, our forecasting skill of
large earthquake is still bounded to the "low-probability" environment. Additional
challenges are posed by issues such as missing data, catalog quality, biases affecting the
estimation of model parameters.
This session focuses on the most recent developments of models and techniques for
seismicity analysis, together with the main issues we need to be aware of. Specifically, it
will address the following topics:
• Advances in earthquake forecasting at different time scales;
• Advances in the analysis of spatiotemporal properties of seismicity;
• Earthquake statistics;
• Challenges affecting the analysis and modeling of spatiotemporal earthquake
occurrence;
• Future perspectives in seismicity modeling;
• Is there life beyond ETAS?

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Co-organized by NH4
Convener: Angela StalloneECSECS | Co-conveners: Ilaria SpassianiECSECS, Sebastian Hainzl, Jiancang Zhuang
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| Attendance Mon, 04 May, 10:45–12:30 (CEST)

The analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity and the development of physical
and statistical models of seismicity have substantially improved our understanding of
earthquake occurrence. Such endeavor has considerably benefited from the availability of
new techniques and high-resolution, high-quality datasets. However, our forecasting skill of
large earthquake is still bounded to the "low-probability" environment. Additional
challenges are posed by issues such as missing data, catalog quality, biases affecting the
estimation of model parameters.
This session focuses on the most recent developments of models and techniques for
seismicity analysis, together with the main issues we need to be aware of. Specifically, it
will address the following topics:
• Advances in earthquake forecasting at different time scales;
• Advances in the analysis of spatiotemporal properties of seismicity;
• Earthquake statistics;
• Challenges affecting the analysis and modeling of spatiotemporal earthquake
occurrence;
• Future perspectives in seismicity modeling;
• Is there life beyond ETAS?

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