From sub-seasonal forecasting to climate projections: predicting hydrologic extremes and improving water management
Co-organized by CL4
Convener: Christopher White | Co-conveners: Louise Arnal, Tim aus der Beek, Louise Crochemore, Andrew SchepenECSECS
| Attendance Thu, 07 May, 10:45–12:30 (CEST)

Many water management sectors are already having to cope with extreme weather events, climate variability and change. In this context, predictions on sub-seasonal, seasonal to decadal timescales (i.e. horizons ranging from months to a decade) are an emerging and essential part of hydrological forecasting. By providing science-based and user-specific information on potential impacts of extreme events, operational hydro-meteorological services are invaluable to a range of water sectors such as transport, energy, agriculture, forestry, health, insurance, tourism and infrastructure.

This session aims to cover the advances in climate and hydro-meteorological forecasting, and their implications on forecasting extreme events for improved water management. It welcomes, without being restricted to, presentations on:

- Making use of climate data for hydrological modelling (downscaling, bias correction, temporal disaggregation, spatial interpolation and other technical challenges),
- Methods to improve forecasting of hydrological extremes,
- Improved representations of hydrological extremes in a future climate,
- Seamless forecasting, including downscaling and statistical post- and pre-processing,
- Propagation of climate model uncertainty to hydrological models and impact assessment,
- Lessons learnt from forecasting and managing present day extreme conditions,
- Operational hydro-meteorological (sub-seasonal to decadal) forecasting systems and climate services,
- Effective methods to link stakeholder interests and scientific expertise (e.g. service co-generation).

The session will bring together research scientists and operational managers in the fields of hydrology, meteorology and climate, with the aim of sharing experiences and initiating discussions on this emerging topic. We encourage presentations from initiatives such as the H2020 IMPREX, BINGO, S2S4E and CLARA projects, and from WWRP/WCRP S2S projects that utilise the recently established S2S project database, and all hydrological relevant applications.

Public information:
Welcome to HS4.6 at #shareEGU20!

This session aims to cover the advances in climate and hydro-meteorological forecasting, and their implications on forecasting extreme events for improved water management. We thank the authors for their valuable contributions to this session. We have a range of brilliant displays, which cover a range of forecast lead times, case study areas and applications.

The displays for the session have been grouped into two categories: Research Studies and Operational & Applied Studies, with each display having a 5 min slot for discussion.

We will start the session at 10:45 CET on Thursday 07 May. The display times listed below may change a bit last minute, but this is the schedule we will try to stick to.

We hope you will enjoy the session!
--- HS4.6 session co-conveners


10:45-10:50 CET
Welcome and opening remarks

Research Studies:

D252: EGU2020-17646 - Spatial and temporal patterns in seasonal forecast skill based on river flow persistence in Irish catchments
Daire Quinn et al.

D253: EGU2020-9149 - Seasonal streamflow forecasting - Which are the drivers controlling the forecast quality?
Ilias Pechlivanidis et al.

D254: EGU2020-18796 - Sensitivity of seasonal hydrological predictability sources to catchment properties
Maria Stergiadi et al.

D255: EGU2020-1533 - Analysis and prediction of hydrological extreme conditions for a small headwater catchment in a German lower mountain range
Lisa Hennig et al.

D257: EGU2020-9321 - Sensitivity analysis of MOHID-Land model. Calibration and validation of Ulla river watershed.
Ana Oliveira et al.

D260: EGU2020-2167 - Modelling runoff generation of a small catchment in the context of climate change by using an ensemble of different climate model outputs and bias correction methods
Kai Sonntag et al.

Open discussion and short break (if time allows)

Operational & Applied Studies:

D261: EGU2020-9773 - A Real-time Ensemble Hydrological Forecasting System over Germany at Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Time Range
Husain Najafi et al.

D262: EGU2020-20290 - Towards improved disaster preparedness and climate proofing in semi-arid regions: development of an operational seasonal forecasting system
Christof Lorenz et al.

D263: EGU2020-5494 - Using seasonal forecast for energy production: SHYMAT climate service, a small hydropower management and assessment tool
Eva Contreras Arribas et al.

D264: EGU2020-5550 - How seasonal forecast can improve the water planning in multipurpose reservoirs: ROAT climate service, a reservoir operation assessment tool
Javier Herrero Lantarón et al.

D265: EGU2020-15853 - SMHI Aqua: a new co-generated hydro-climate service to enable sustainable freshwater management
Carolina Cantone et al.

D266: EGU2020-9006 - Using seasonal forecast information to strengthen resilience and improve food security in Niger River Basin
Bernard Minoungou et al.

Open discussion and HS4.6 closing remarks