Handling Uncertainties in Model Concepts, Parameters, Forcings and Forecasts: Diagnostics, Sensitivity, Inversion and Uncertainty Analysis
Convener: Wolfgang Nowak | Co-conveners: Hoshin Gupta, Amin Haghnegahdar, Juliane Mai, Cristina Prieto, Saman Razavi, Thomas Wöhling
| Attendance Mon, 04 May, 08:30–10:15 (CEST)

NOTE: We are delighted to have Prof. Peter Reichert from the Department of Systems Analysis, Integrated Assessment and Modelling at the Eawag as our invited speaker.

Proper characterization of uncertainty remains a major challenge, and is inherent to many aspects of modelling such as structural development, hypothesis testing and parameter estimation, and the adequate characterization of parameters, forcing data and initial and boundary conditions. To address this challenge, useful methods are uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis and inversion (calibration), either in Bayesian, geostatistical or conventional manners.
This session invites contributions that discuss advances, both in theory and/or application, in methods for SA/UA and inversion applicable to all Earth and Environmental Systems Models (EESMs). This includes all areas of hydrology, such as classical hydrology, subsurface hydrology and soil science. Topics of interest include (but are not limited to):

1) Novel methods for effective characterization of sensitivity and uncertainty,
2) Novel approaches for parameter estimation, data inversion and data assimilation,
3) Novel methods for spatial and temporal evaluation/analysis of models,
4) Single- versus multi-criteria SA/UA/inversion,
5) The role of data information and error on SA/UA (e.g., input/output error, model structure error, worth of data etc.), and
6) Improving the computational efficiency of SA/UA/inversion (efficient sampling, surrogate modelling, parallel computing, model pre-emption, etc.).

Contributions addressing any or all aspects of sensitivity/uncertainty, including those related to structural development, hypothesis testing, parameter estimation, data assimilation, forcing data, and initial and boundary conditions are invited.

Public information:

08:30 to 08:39 :: Welcome and introduction
08:39 to 08:45 :: Peter Reichert (_invited_)
08:45 to 08:51 :: Gabriele Baroni
08:51 to 08:57 :: Valentina Svitelman
08:57 to 09:03 :: Monica Riva
09:03 to 09:09 :: Trine Enemark
09:09 to 09:15 :: Charles Luce
09:15 to 09:21 :: Raphael Schneider
09:21 to 09:27 :: Lisa Watson
09:27 to 09:33 :: Mara Meggiorin
09:33 to 09:39 :: Gabrielle Rudi
09:39 to 09:45 :: Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner
09:45 to 09:51 :: Mariaines Di Dato
09:51 to 09:57 :: Imane Farouk
09:57 to 10:03 :: Sabine M. Spiessl
10:03 to 10:09 :: Robin Schwemmle
10:09 to 10:15 :: Falk Heße